Thursday, July 3, 2008

Luke's Picks for UFC 86

Corey Hill vs. Justin Buchholz

Gotta go with Corey Hill TKO Round 1, loved him on TUF 5 and now that he is working with Jens fulltime he's headed down the right path.

Melvin Guillard vs. Dennis Siver

One fight removed from a drug suspension and his loss to Rich Clementi, I'll take Mevlin via Unanimous Decision.

Jorge Gurgel vs. Cole Miller

Jorge has promised to not let this fight go to a decision and Miller isn't one to lay back. But some how I still see it making all three rounds. Gurgel in a split decision upset. At even odds on Gurgel (BEST BET).

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Justin McCully

Right now Gonzaga is -600 versus McCully+400 on Bodog right now, which is surprising because he’s coming of two consecutive losses. Sure he doesn't want to lose three in a row, but that spread is way too big for me. I am taking McCully to win in the upset of the night.

Tyson Griffin vs. Marcus Aurelio

Aurelio had a stunning Round 1 submission victory at UFN 13, but I don't see this fight being this easy. Griffin is a big 155 lb fighter and hard to submit. Griffin via TKO Round 3.

Joe Stevenson vs. Gleison Tibau

Joe Daddy via submission Round 2. Decent bet at -260, but definitely not my first pick.

Josh Koscheck vs. Chris Lytle

Kos takes it by decision.

Patrick Cote vs. Ricardo Almeida

Almeida -145 via Submission Round 2(BEST BET).

Rampage vs. Forrest

I don't see Forrest getting KO'd, but I think Rampage will be a lot better in the clinch that people anticipate. It seems that Forrest has his boxing game to the point where he can avoid the hammer, but I don't see him doing much offensively on his feet other than trying to tire Rampage in the clinch. Also, I think with Rampage's wrestling background he will make it tough for Forrest to finish him on the ground. I like Rampage in a decision. At -275 Rampage isn’t a horrendous bet, but my money isn’t going there.

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