Main CardLightweight bout:
Nate Diaz (-220) vs.
Josh Neer (+170)Butch: Diaz, the winner of season 5 of the ultimate fighter, takes on Iowa's Josh "The Dentist" Neer. Diaz is a perfect 4-0 in the UFC and Neer is sporting a record of 3-3. Neer will look to utilize his improved striking and inflict a nasty group and pound attack. Neer will have to be careful because Diaz is a submission expert and Neer has been tapped by Drew Fickett, Nick Thompson and, most recently, by Nate's brother Nick Diaz. This will be the toughest test for Diaz and expect him to submit Neer in the 2nd round.
Luke: Nate Diaz via submission
Lightweight bout:
Mac Danzig (+135) vs.
Clay Guida (-165)Butch: TUF season 6 winner Danzig takes on vetern lightweight Guida. This fight will be Danzig's toughest yet and Guida is coming off a 2-3 record in his past five bouts. Guida appears to be a one dimensional-wrestler with incredible speed and toughness. Danzig on the other hand is considered a well rounded fighter that combines striking and BJJ. Guida's biggest weakness is the abiltiy to finish fights i.e. Roger Huerta. I think Danzig will weather the storm and submit Guida in the 3rd round.
Luke: Guida via split decision
Middleweight bout:
Ed Herman (-265) vs.
Alan Belcher (+205)Butch:I expect Herman to push this fight early and look to overwhlem Belcher utilizing the stragey that to a first round knockout at the hands of Jason Day at UFC 83. Belcher will look to take this fight to the ground and attempt submissions. Herman's wrestler skills are superior and I expect they will neutralize Belcher's submissions. This fight will end in a unanimous decision for Herman.
Luke: Herman via KO
Light Heavyweight bout:
Houston Alexander (-285) vs.
Eric Schafer (+225)Butch: Schafer has a distinct advantage on the ground and if Alexander is on his back for an extended period of time, this could be a quick fight. Alexander throws heavy hands and will look for a highlight reel knockout to rebound from his recent embarassments. Schafer has lost his past two bouts due to TKOs (against Michael Bisping and Stephan Bonnar) and I expect the trend to continue to Alexander ending the fight in the first round.
Luke: Alexander KO
Preliminary Card
Middleweight bout: Alessio Sakara vs. Joe Vedepo
Butch: Sakara unanimous decision
Luke: Sakara KO
Middleweight bout: Wilson Gouveia vs. Ryan Jensen
Butch: Gouveia via submission
Luke: Gouveia decision
Lightweight bout: Joe Lauzon vs. Kyle Bradley
Butch: Lauzon via TKO
Luke: Bradley decision
Light heavyweight bout: Jason Brilz vs. Brad Morris
Butch: Brilz via submission
Luke: Brilz submission
Middleweight bout: Drew McFedries vs. Mike Massenzio
Butch: McFedries TKO
Luke: McFedries KO
Middleweight bout: Rob Kimmons vs. Dan Miller
Butch: Miller decision
Luke: Dan Miller submission
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